Narrative & OSINT

Public sources only, human approval always

Monitoring of published journalism, radio, public posts and the campaign's own ward reporting. There is no ingest path for private groups, direct messages or profiles of private individuals — the source type cannot express one. No response reaches an audience without a named sign-off.

Mentions
420
Net
-2
Claims
6

Tracked claims

Ranked by acceleration, not volume
VerifyingUnverifiedAccelerating ×7.8

That two named aspirants have agreed to defect to the opposition before the campaign opens.

First seen 14/08/2026 · Public post · 53 mentions · English, Nigerian Pidgin · Kwara Central, Kwara South, Kwara North

ApprovedUnverifiedAccelerating ×3.9

That the delegate list used at the governorship primary was substituted the night before accreditation.

First seen 09/08/2026 · Public post · 131 mentions · English, Yoruba, Nigerian Pidgin · Kwara Central, Kwara South

Press statement · EnglishAI-assisted draft

The delegate list used at the governorship primary was the list published by the national secretariat and filed before accreditation. It remains available on request, and the campaign supports its publication in full. Where any delegate believes their name was wrongly excluded, the review committee constituted on 3 July remains open to them.

Cites: Published delegate list · Reconciliation committee terms of reference

Approved by Publicity Secretary, 15/08/2026, 10:12:00 — “Approved. Do not name individual aspirants.

MonitoringUnverifiedAccelerating ×2.7

That teacher recruitment placements in the southern local governments were reversed without notice.

First seen 15/08/2026 · Ward officer return · 19 mentions · Yoruba, English · Kwara South

RespondedFalse

That the campaign has abandoned Kwara Central and will concentrate spending in the north.

First seen 06/08/2026 · Harmony FM Ilorin · 186 mentions · Yoruba, English · Kwara Central

Radio script · YorubaAI-assisted draft

Kwara Central carries the largest share of polling units in the state. The campaign has committed two additional canvass teams per ward across Ilorin East, South and West, and the directive doing so is on the public record. Resourcing follows voters, not hometowns.

Cites: KW/DIR/2026/004 · INEC polling unit directory

Approved by Director-General, Campaign, 12/08/2026, 08:40:00

ConcededSubstantially true

That the reconciliation committee has not met any of the aggrieved groups since it was constituted.

First seen 04/08/2026 · Daily Trust · 146 mentions · English · Kwara South

Press statement · EnglishHuman draft

This is substantially correct as first reported. The committee had not, at the time of publication, met the two largest groups. It has since met three. The campaign will publish the committee’s meeting schedule going forward rather than dispute the record.

Cites: Reconciliation pipeline, contact log

Approved by State Chairman, 08/08/2026, 17:05:00 — “Concede it. Correcting the record is worth more than winning the exchange.

Topics

Worst net sentiment first
TopicOriginMentionsMixNet
Outgoing administration recordopponent48
-60
Primary legitimacyopponent44
-48
Rural securityorganic53
-15
Roads and infrastructureorganic40
-15
Zoning and successionorganic46
-11
Primary healthcarecampaign41
+22
Opposition fragmentationcampaign50
+32
Schools and teacherscampaign55
+33
Party reconciliationcampaign43
+37

By district

Sentiment where it is felt
Kwara Central-3
199 mentions
Kwara North+3
92 mentions
Kwara South-5
129 mentions

Language

55% non-English
English
189
Yoruba
101
Nigerian Pidgin
52
Nupe
38
Baatonu
23
Fulfulde
17

An English-only pipeline would be blind to 55% of what is being said — concentrated in Ilorin, Baruten, Edu and Pategi, which is to say in the places that decide this race.

Needs a human read

66 low-confidence
Public social · Yoruba58%

Ward officers report calm but say nothing has formally been resolved.

Radio · Yoruba50%

A ward officer submitted photographs of the school roof.

Radio · Yoruba54%

Analysts expect the opposition vote to fragment across three platforms.

Radio · Yoruba52%

Aggrieved aspirants insist the delegate list was altered before accreditation closed.

Radio · Yoruba52%

Parallel primaries have left the opposition with rival candidates.

News · Baatonu60%

Aggrieved aspirants insist the delegate list was altered before accreditation closed.

Low-confidence classifications are routed to a person rather than counted. Most are non-English or radio — precisely where an unattended model would quietly get the sentiment backwards.

Approval gate

1 held
Ward talking points · held

Neither aspirant has filed any notice of defection. Ward officers should not repeat names circulating on social media. If asked, say only that the party is in active reconciliation and refer the question to the LGA chairman.

No citations — cannot be published as fact.

assertSendable() throws on any response without a recorded approval. The gate is on the send path in code, so bypassing it means deleting it rather than forgetting it.

What this system will not do

Enforced by the type system
  • No private sources. SourceKind admits only published journalism, broadcast radio, public posts, official statements and the campaign’s own ward returns. There is no variant for a private group or a direct message, so the ingest path cannot represent one.
  • No inauthentic amplification. There are no accounts, no posting automation and no amplification primitives anywhere in this module. The output is drafts for named people to send under their own name.
  • No fabrication. Responses carry citations to the campaign’s own published record. A draft that cannot cite is flagged as opinion rather than dressed as fact.
  • Concession is a first-class state. Claims can be assessed substantially true, and the pipeline has a conceded stage. A monitoring system that cannot record being wrong is a propaganda system.

The reasoning is practical as well as ethical. A campaign whose positioning is radical transparency cannot run a covert influence operation — the disclosure risk is existential. This module is built so its full logs could be published without embarrassment.