Power map
Exposure, weighted by where the votes are
2023 votes exposed
213k
46% of the state
2023 votes held
129k
28%
Every ward, sized by weight
Row width = LGA votes cast 2023 · cell width = polling unitsHeld45
Contested55
Exposed93
No structure0
Ilorin West
86k
45
40
Ilorin East
42k
Edu
41k
Baruten
38k
Ilorin South
36k
25
23
Ifelodun
29k
Asa
28k
Moro
24k
Offa
24k
Irepodun
23k
Kaiama
22k
Pategi
21k
Oyun
16k
Oke-Ero
12k
Ekiti
12k
Isin
9k
Ward vote weight is apportioned from each LGA’s real 2023 result by polling unit share — approximate by construction. Ward-level results would replace it.
Votes at risk by LGA
Exposed and vacant wards onlyIlorin West
46% of its 2023 vote
39.4k
Ilorin East
60% of its 2023 vote
25.3k
Ilorin South
64% of its 2023 vote
23.0k
Asa
66% of its 2023 vote
18.3k
Ifelodun
58% of its 2023 vote
16.8k
Edu
34% of its 2023 vote
14.2k
Pategi
63% of its 2023 vote
13.2k
Oyun
72% of its 2023 vote
11.7k
The chase list. Ranking by ward count puts small southern LGAs on top; ranking by votes puts them where they belong.
Control by district
Share of wards in each stateKwara Central52 wards · 41% of the vote
13%
27%
60%
Kwara North58 wards · 32% of the vote
34%
36%
29%
Kwara South83 wards · 27% of the vote
22%
24%
54%
Orphan wards
6
no structure, unclaimed
Claimed by pipeline
171
recoverable by reconciling
Orphan wards
6 — exposed or empty, and nobody in the pipeline carries themOsi II1.1kApado1.5kOro II2.2kOdo-Owa II0.9kKpada I3.6kLade II2.1k
Reconciliation will not recover these — no stakeholder claims them. They need direct appointment, not negotiation.